Geo-Strategy Update #5: The Universal Law of Game Theory

• Professor Jiang explains why Christian Zionism dominates American Middle East policy, using game theory to show how a coalition of four factions is driving escalation against Iran, and argues that Christian Zionists are the most powerful faction because they possess the most compelling story, the highest motivation, and the strongest coordination.

The four-faction anti-Iran coalition

• The war escalation in the Middle East is driven by four factions working toward the same goal for different reasons, without necessarily coordinating directly.

  • Christian Zionists want to fulfill biblical prophecy, specifically the Second Coming of Jesus, which requires specific geopolitical conditions in the Middle East.
  • Zionists want to establish Greater Israel as promised in the Bible, seeing the land as part of a covenant with Yahweh.
  • Global financial elite (Wall Street, City of London) are opportunists who want to control Iran’s oil reserves and global trade routes, countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the BRICS project.
  • American Empire / military-industrial complex / deep state want to maintain American hegemony and justify their budgets and existence by controlling the Middle East.

• These factions have a cynical, transactional partnership.

  • Christian Zionists see Zionists as ritual sacrifices to win favor with God; Zionists see Christian Zionists as useful tools whose real god will eventually kill them once the goal is reached.
  • The financial elite monetize the faith of the other groups by financing the project and planning to collect tolls once it is built.
  • The American Empire provides military protection to justify its budget and cushy bureaucratic jobs.
  • They agree on the goal but disagree on method: Christian Zionists and Zionists want ground troops for regime change in Iran, while the financiers and the Empire are risk-averse and prefer slow, steady escalation.

The universal law of game theory

• Professor Jiang introduces a formula to explain who wins in any game: mass × energy × coordination.

  • Mass is the number of people, adjusted for social cohesion (e.g., Japan’s cohesive society gives it more effective mass than China despite China’s larger population).
  • Energy is the level of motivation, measured by a group’s willingness to accept its own limitations and commit to self-improvement. Mental energy (self-reflection, admitting “I am wrong”) matters more than physical energy because it is the most psychologically costly thing a person can do.
  • Coordination is the ability to work together, and it is the most important factor, weighted at least three times as much as mass. Energy is second, weighted about twice as much as mass.

• Coordination comes in two types.

  • Conscious coordination involves a leader, bureaucracy, or explicit planning. It is weaker because conspiracies are hard to keep secret, often illegal, and create internal friction as everyone maximizes self-interest.
  • Subconscious coordination is frictionless, deniable, and more powerful. It operates through families, ethnicities, and religions, where people work together almost instinctively without explicit plotting.

• The formula applies at every scale.

  • In individual games (one vs. one), mass and coordination are both 1, so the winner is simply the most motivated person, consistent with Anders Ericsson’s research on deliberate practice.
  • In team sports, mass is constant, so the winner is the team with the best combination of energy (commitment to self-improvement) and subconscious coordination.
  • At the nation-state level, the formula identifies four dominant regional powers: the United States (Western Hemisphere), Germany (Europe), Japan (Southeast Asia), and Israel (Middle East), which are expected to dominate as the world shifts from unipolar to multipolar.

Why story is the key to subconscious coordination

• The most powerful way to create subconscious coordination is through a compelling story, which frames understanding of the world and scripts behavior.

  • If every story in human history were presented to every person, the three most remembered would be: Plato’s allegory of the cave, the crucifixion and resurrection of Jesus, and the Second Coming of Jesus.
  • These are really one story: a truth-teller is rejected and killed by the people, but his truth ultimately triumphs, leading to the end of history and paradise.
  • This story answers the three questions embedded in every human heart: where did we come from, why are we here, and where are we going.

• Christian Zionism is the most powerful force in the world today because it is built on this story.

  • Believers feel they have discovered the secret of the universe and are willing to sacrifice their lives to bring it into reality.
  • The story is so compelling that it functions as a script, driving extreme motivation and commitment.

Historical precedent: Muhammad as the Jewish Messiah

• Professor Jiang argues that 1,500 years ago, during devastating wars between the Byzantine and Sassanid Persian empires, Jews in the diaspora were plotting to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the Third Temple.
  • Defeated Jewish armies fled to the Arabian desert (where Romans could not follow), interacted with Arab pagans, and through syncretism, Jewish messianic beliefs spread and eventually formed the foundation of Islam.
  • When the Persians briefly conquered Jerusalem and Jews began rebuilding the Temple, the Christian majority rebelled and called on the Byzantine general Heraclius, who massacred the Jews to prove his legitimacy.
  • This created the classic Jewish eschatological moment: when all hope seems lost and the antichrist (Heraclius) has emerged, the Messiah is expected to appear and lead final victory.
  • The Jews in the Arabian desert settled on a charismatic leader, Muhammad, as the Jewish Messiah.
  • According to game theory, Muhammad needed to say only three things to unite the world: (1) I am the Jewish Messiah, (2) we are all children of Abraham and must eliminate debt, slavery, and landlessness, and (3) religious divisions are tools of exploitation and all faiths should be tolerated.
  • This led to the Constitution of Medina and the founding ideology of religious tolerance in Islam, and launched the world’s first global revolution against the established order.
  • Although Muhammad died before completing his mission, many Jews believed the prophecy was fulfilled: Jerusalem was reconquered, the Third Temple was built (today the Al-Aqsa Mosque), and a millennium of peace and prosperity followed (the Islamic Golden Age). Many Jews converted to Islam and became top administrators of the empire.
  • Professor Jiang links to academic papers by Jewish religious historians in the video description to support this controversial claim.

Predictions and the emergence of the Übermensch

• Applying game theory, Professor Jiang predicts Christian Zionists will dominate the coalition, overwhelm the American Empire and financial elite, force the US to use ground troops to invade Iran, and get essentially whatever they want.
• However, game theory also predicts that when the structure of a game becomes clear and the trajectory seems inevitable, a new player emerges who sees the contours of the game and manipulates events to change its course.
  • Hegel called this figure the “world historical figure”; Nietzsche called him the Übermensch (Superman).
  • Professor Jiang identifies this figure as Vladimir Putin, and says his next video will discuss who Putin really is, what he wants, and how he will change the course of history.