Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor who spent 21 years modeling hypothetical US bombing campaigns against Iran, returns four weeks after his first appearance to assess how the war is unfolding. His core argument is that the United States has fundamentally miscalculated: rather than weakening Iran, the bombing campaign has strengthened it, and the US is now caught in an “escalation trap” with no good options. He walks through the stages of that trap, explains why Iran’s buried arsenals and decentralized command structure make it resilient, and warns that the conflict is pushing Iran toward becoming a fourth global power center alongside the US, China, and Russia.
The Escalation Trap: How We Got Here
Stage 1 — Leadership decapitation bombing: The US and Iran kill senior leaders, expecting the regime to collapse or moderate. Instead, the regime evolves and grows stronger. Pape notes this is exactly what happened when Israel killed the Supreme Leader and several dozen officials he was meeting with, including doves who were open to negotiation.
Stage 2 — Horizontal escalation: The strengthened regime lashes out by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, choking global oil shipping. This has already happened. Iran is selectively blocking the strait and its precision drones are hitting US military bases across the Gulf.
Stage 3 — Ground operations: The US considers sending Marines to retake the strait and seize Iran’s oil fields. Pape modeled this for years and says the terrain around the Strait of Hormuz is a “moonscape” that makes amphibious landings extremely difficult. He believes there is still a 70% chance of ground operations beginning.
Stage 4 — Iran as a fourth global power center: If the US pulls back without a deal, Iran emerges as a regional hegemon with nuclear weapons capability, deepening alliances with China and Russia. Pape says the US is now at the fork between stages 3 and 4, and this branch is becoming more evident hour by hour.
Why Bombing Has Strengthened Iran
The enriched uranium problem: Pape’s modeling consistently showed that bombers can destroy industrial enrichment facilities but cannot destroy the enriched uranium itself. It is buried deep underground in caves and tunnels, protected from bombardment. Iran may have even dispersed it in advance of the strikes. The “gold” survives even if the “pan” is destroyed.
Buried arsenals: Iran has deeply buried its drone and missile stockpiles. The US can destroy anything above ground — launchers, ships, visible targets — and has hit an estimated 11,000–12,000 targets. But it cannot reach the final 10–20% (or more) of Iran’s drone and missile capability that is underground. This is why Iran can still attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz despite 40 days of bombardment.
Political rallying effect: Drawing on his research on Vietnam, Pape explains that bombing energizes populations rather than breaking them. The more the US bombs, the more Iranian nationalism bonds the society and regime together. Trump’s threat to “end an entire civilization” has accelerated this, pushing even Iran’s pro-democracy movement toward supporting nuclear weapons development as the only guarantee of survival against future American attacks.
Decentralized but not chaotic: When Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth suggested Iran’s continued attacks during a ceasefire indicated a lack of centralized command, Pape pushed back. Iran’s military structure uses pre-delegated orders — local commanders are authorized to act within strategic guidelines set by the Supreme Leader (the son of the one killed). This is standard military practice and does not indicate dysfunction. Pape argues the decision-making in the White House is far more chaotic than in Tehran.
Iran’s Growing Geopolitical Power
Control of the Strait of Hormuz: 80–90% of the strait’s shipping goes to Asia. Iran’s selective blockade gives it leverage over India, Japan, and other Asian nations. India is edging toward neutrality or Iran-leaning. Japan’s leader refused Trump’s Oval Office pressure to provide military support. This is reorienting America’s Asian alliances.
Collapse of the Gulf counterbalancing coalition: Before the war, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait were forming an emerging web of cooperation with Israel and the US, with American military bases serving as the “anchor” of protection. That anchor is now gone — US carriers are a thousand miles away, and the bases themselves are being hit by Iranian drones. The coalition is fragmenting into three pools:
Iraq is distancing itself from US military presence
Oman is being pulled into Iran’s camp (Iran has offered to share strait toll revenues with Oman)
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are turning to Pakistan for security guarantees instead of the US
Russia-China-Iran alignment: Russia immediately offered Iran military targeting data on US carrier positions, which is why US carriers remain far from the Gulf. China and Iran are deepening ties. Together, Iran (20% of world oil) and Russia (11%) could coordinate to take 30% of global oil off the market, with China absorbing much of it. This would produce “mega economic consequences” for the US and Europe.
Nuclear timeline: Pape estimates Iran could have nuclear weapons within a year. The enriched uranium stockpile — including 1,000 lbs at 60% enrichment and 10,000 lbs at 5–20% — survives the bombing. The pro-democracy movement, which once might have opposed nuclear weapons, now sees them as essential for deterrence against Trump’s existential threats.
Israel’s Role as “Diplomatic Spoiler”
Pape identifies a pattern of Israel sabotaging US diplomatic efforts with Iran:
In June 2025, during the 12-day war, Trump was preparing to negotiate with a set of Iranian officials. Israel killed them within 36 hours.
On February 28, 2026, Israel dropped the first bombs that killed the Supreme Leader and dozens of officials, including doves. Secretary Rubio later said Israel “backed us in a corner” by launching the strike and forcing the US to follow with its own air campaign.
On March 17, Israel killed Ali Larijani, the primary contact for a 10-point peace proposal Trump had called “workable.” Trump complained on Truth Social that he was “inches away from the biggest deal in history” before the assassination reset the clock.
Pape argues Netanyahu’s public rhetoric painting Iran as a “paper tiger” on its last legs was a dangerous miscalculation that influenced US decision-making and led to the flawed assumption that Iran was weak and would collapse under pressure.
Iran’s 10-Point Ceasefire Proposal
Iran submitted a 10-point plan that Pape says is essentially a demand for recognition as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf:
Permanent ceasefire
End attacks on allies (halt US/Israeli strikes on Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen)
Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Iran will allow safe passage through the strait
Iran will charge tolls (reportedly $2 million per ship)
Revenue sharing with Oman (toll revenues split as custodians of the strait)
Lift all US primary and secondary sanctions
Return all frozen Iranian funds held abroad
US acceptance of Iran’s right to domestic uranium enrichment (with commitment not to seek nuclear weapons)
War reparations and termination of all UN resolutions against Iran, replaced by a new binding Security Council resolution
Pape’s assessment: every point validates Iran’s position at the top of the Persian Gulf hierarchy. He says no country in 300 years of international relations has voluntarily surrendered power once it has it, and Iran will not be the first.
The Ground War Option
How it would work: Marines would conduct amphibious landings (using Osprey hybrid aircraft and landing craft) to establish beachheads along Iran’s coast near the Strait of Hormuz. The terrain is extremely difficult — a mountainous moonscape. Forces would need to control an area roughly 100 by 200 miles to get behind the mountainous terrain, which means seizing Iran’s oil fields in the southwest.
Why Trump wants the oil fields: Trump has repeatedly said “if it were up to me, I would take the oil” and referenced “to the victor belong the spoils.” Pape interprets this as Trump being presented with options to seize Iran’s oil fields as the objective of a ground campaign.
The political trap of casualties: Most people assume US casualties would cause America to withdraw. Pape says the opposite is more likely. His research shows that when troops die, the 36% of the public that supported the war will double down — “they died for nothing” becomes the rallying cry. This is exactly what happened in Vietnam. Even a limited ground operation that takes casualties commits the US to a minimum six-month ground war.
Indicators to watch: Pape advises tracking the physical movement of troops, aircraft, and carriers — not rhetoric or negotiations. Key signs: Marines moving from Camp Pendleton or Japan to the Gulf, F-35s deploying to the region, carriers moving closer. The absence of withdrawal means stage 3 remains active.
What Happens to Ordinary Iranians
Pape expresses deep concern for the 92 million Iranians caught in the conflict, particularly the pro-democracy movement that has spent decades trying to build a better society.
Infrastructure destruction: If the US targets Iran’s electric power grid — specifically the generating halls (giant turbines) rather than just transformers — power could be knocked out for 6 to 18 months
